Valuing Blue Carbon for Ecological Sovereignty: Dynamics and Projections of Seagrass Stock in Teluk Saleh

Kharisma Rinandyta; Rizki Atthoriq Hidayat; Surya Hafizh

doi:10.69606/geography.v4i2.479

Authors

Kharisma Rinandyta Applied Meteorology, Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9263-1660
Rizki Atthoriq Hidayat Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Padang, West Sumatra 25131, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7267-8756
Surya Hafizh Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Padang, West Sumatra 25131, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5028-1339

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69606/geography.v4i2.479

Keywords:

ARIMA forecasting, blue carbon, coastal management, remote sensing, seagrass ecosystems, spatial analysis

Abstract

Limited quantitative data and a 7% annual rate of seagrass degradation hamper efforts to optimize Indonesia’s blue carbon absorption potential within global climate change mitigation strategies. This study aims to quantify seagrass blue carbon stock and project its future dynamics in Teluk Saleh, West Nusa Tenggara. Seagrass distribution from 2019 to 2025 was mapped using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification approach. Carbon stock projections until 2035 were conducted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The results show significant temporal variability, with carbon stocks decreasing by approximately 16,000 tons (2022) and then increasing by 36,000 tons (2023). Projected peak recovery potential is approaching 50,000 tons (2028), but this projection remains sensitive to ongoing anthropogenic pressures. These findings underscore the importance of blue carbon quantification in supporting data-driven coastal management and climate mitigation policies, and highlight its potential to inform sustainable, non-extractive economic pathways.

References

Al-Asif, A., Kamal, A. H. N., Hamli, H., Idris, M. H., Gerusu, G. J., Ismail, J., Bhuiyan, M. K. A., Abualreesh, M. H., Musa, N., Wahid, M. E. A., & Mishra, M. (2022). Status, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services of Seagrass Habitats within the Coral Triangle in the Western Pacific Ocean. Ocean Science Journal, 57, 147-173. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12601-022-00068-w.

Arriesgado, D., Arriesgado, E., Sornito, M., & Bucay, D. (2024). Anthtropogenic Activities Alter the Seagrass Ecosystem in Southern Philippines. Journal of Survey in Fisheries Sciences, 11(1), 84–90. https://doi.org/10.53555/sfs.v11i01.1971

Allen Coral Atlas. (2020). Benthic and Geomorphic Maps. University of Queensland, Planet, Arizona State University, and National Geographic Society. https://allencoralatlas.org.

Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika [BMKG]. (2022). Ikhtisar Kondisi La Niña 2020–2022. BMKG.

Chefaoui, R. M., Duarte, C. M., & Serrão, E. A. (2018). Dramatic Loss of Seagrass Habitat Under Projected Climate Change in the Mediterranean Sea. Global Change Biology, 24, 4919–4928. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14401.

Christianen, M. J. A., Herman, P. M. J., Bouma, T. J., Lamers, L. P. M., van Katwijk, M. M., van der Heide, T., Mumby, P. J., Silliman, B. R., Engelhard, S. L., van de Kerk, M., Kiswara, W., & van de Koppel, J. (2014). Habitat Collapse Due to Overgrazing Threatens Turtle Conservation in Marine Protected Areas. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1777), 20132890. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2890.

Cohen, J. (1960). A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20(1), 37–46. https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000104.

Collier, C. J., Udy, J. W., & Villacís, R. (2016). Light Availability and the Distribution of Seagrass in a Shallow Coastal Lagoon. Marine and Freshwater Research, 67(9), 1381–1391. https://doi.org/10.1071/MF15159.

Davies, B. F. R., Oiry, S., Rosa, P., Zoffoli, M. L., Sousa, A. I., Thomas, O. R., Smale, D. A., Austen, M. C., Biermann, L., Attrill, M. J., Román, A., Navarro, G., Barillé, A., Harin, N., Clewley, D., Martínez-Vicente, V., Gernez, P., & Barillé, L. (2024). A Sentinel Watching Over Inter-Tidal Seagrass Phenology Across Western Europe and North Africa. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 382. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01543-z.

Dunic, J. C., Brown, C. J., Connolly, R. M., Turschwell, M. P., & Côté, I. M. (2021). Long-Term Declines and Recovery of Meadow Area Across the World’s Seagrass Bioregions. Global Change Biology, 27(17), 4096–4109. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15684.

Fourqurean, J. W., Duarte, C. M., Kennedy, H., Marbà, N., Holmer, M., Mateo, M. A., Apostolaki, E. T., Kendrick, G. A., Krause-Jensen, D., McGlathery, K. J., & Serrano, O. (2012). Seagrass Ecosystems as a Globally Significant Carbon Stock. Nature Geoscience, 5(7), 505–509. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1477.

Gašparović, M., Klobučar, D., & Gašparović, I. (2022). Automatic Forest Degradation Monitoring by Remote Sensing Methods and Copernicus Data. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 43, 611–616. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-611-2022

Giglio, S., Kuchler, T., Stroebel, J., & Wang, O. (2025). Nature Loss and Climate Change: The Twin-Crises Multiplier. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 115, 409–414.

Government of Indonesia. (2022). Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. Ministry of Environment and Forestry. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-09/Indonesia%20Enhanced%20NDC.pdf

Hedley, J. D., Harborne, A. R., & Mumby, P. J. (2005). Simple and Robust Removal of Sun Glint for Mapping Shallow-Water Benthos. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26(10), 2107–2112. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160500034086.

Hetharia, J. V. T., Prartono, T., Koropitan, A. F., & Tapilatu, Y. (2024). The Potential of Seagrass Ecosystems in Waai Liang Coastal Waters on Ambon Island as Carbon Storage Sites. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1329(1), 012006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1329/1/012006.

Hertyastuti, P. R., Putra, R. D., Apriadi, T., Putra, M., Suhana, I., F., & Nugraha, A. H. (2020). Estimasi Kandungan Stok Karbon pada Ekosistem Padang Lamun di Perairan Dompak dan Berakit, Kepulauan Riau. Jurnal Ilmu dan Teknologi Kelautan Tropis, 12(3), 849–862. https://doi.org/10.29244/jitkt.v12i3.32199

Ilma, A. F. N., & Supriadi, D. (2022). Blue Economy: Solusi Membangun Kembali Perekonomian “Blue Recovery” Pasca Pandemi COVID-19 untuk Sustainable Welfare. Lingkar Ekonomika, 1(1), 87–96. https://doi.org/10.32424/jle.v1i1.6516.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. (2014). 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands. IPCC.

Katwijk, M. M. van, Beusekom, J. E. E. van, Folmer, E. O., Kolbe, K., Jong, D. J. de, & Dolch, T. (2024). Seagrass Recovery Trajectories and Recovery Potential in Relation to Nutrient Reduction. Journal of Applied Ecology, 61(8), 1784-1804. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.14704.

Kennedy, H., Beggins, J., Duarte, C. M., Fourqurean, J. W., Holmer, M., Marbà, N., & Middelburg, J. J. (2010). Seagrass Sediments as a Global Carbon Sink: Isotopic Constraints. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 24, GB4026. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GB003848.

Kennedy, E. V., Roelfsema, C. M., Lyons, M. B., Kovacs, E. M., Borrego-Acevedo, R., Roe, M., Phinn, S. R., Larsen, K., Murray, N. J., Yuwono, D., Wolff, J., & Tudman, P. (2021). Reef Cover, a Coral Reef Classification for Global Habitat Mapping from Remote Sensing. Scientific Data, 8(1), 196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00958-z.

Liu, Y., Zhang, X., Gao, X., & Wang, Z. (2022). A Review of Remote Sensing of Seagrass and Applications to Monitoring and Management. Remote Sensing, 14(3), 531. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14030531.

Lyzenga, D. R. (1981). Remote Sensing of Bottom Reflectance and Water Attenuation Parameters in Shallow Water Using Aircraft and Landsat Data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2(1), 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431168108948342

Melgani, F., & Bruzzone, L. (2004). Classification of Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Images with Support Vector Machines. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 42(8), 1778-1790. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2004.831865

Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS). (2020). National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2020–2024.

Olofsson, P., Foody, G. M., Herold, M., Stehman, S. V., Woodcock, C. E., & Wulder, M. A. (2014). Good Practices for Estimating Area and Assessing Accuracy of Land Change. Remote Sensing of Environment, 148, 42–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2014.02.015.

Pahlevan, N., Sarkar, S., Franz, B. A., Balasubramanian, S. V., & He, J. (2017). Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) Data Processing for Aquatic Science Applications: Demonstrations and Validations. Remote Sensing of Environment, 201, 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.033

Pasupalati, N., Nath, M., Sharan, A., Narayan, P., Bhatta, R., Ramachandran, R., & Ramachandran, P. (2017). Economic Valuation of Wetland Ecosystem Goods and Services. In Wetland Science: Perspectives From South Asia (pp. 259–284). New Delhi: Springer India. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-3715-0_14.

Pontius, R. G., Jr., & Millones, M. (2011). Death to Kappa: Birth of Quantity Disagreement and Allocation Disagreement for Accuracy Assessment. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 32(15), 4407–4429. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2011.552923.

Rahmawati, S., Hernawan, U. E., Iswari, M. Y., Riniatsih, I., Suyarso, S., Prayudha, B., Suyarso., Alifatri, L. O., Iswari, M. Y., Anggraini, K., Hadiyanto., Hernawan, U. E., Ambo-Rappe, R., Choesin, D. N., Nugraha, A. H., Sjafrie, N. D. M., Riniatsih, I., Rifai, H., Fachriansyah, K., Manafi, M. R., Rustam, A., Ningsih, E., & Rahmadi, P. (2022). Status Ekosistem Lamun Indonesia Tahun 2021. Jakarta: Badan Riset dan Inovasi Nasional.

Rajandran, A., Tan, M. L., Samat, N. S., & Chan, N. W. (2022). A Review of Google Earth Engine Application in Mapping Aquaculture Ponds. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1064(1), 012011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1064/1/012011

Ralph, P. J., Durako, M. J., Enriquez, S., Collier, C. J., & Doblin, M. A. (2007). Impact of Light Limitation on Seagrasses. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 350(1–2), 176–193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jembe.2007.06.017.

Roelfsema, C. M., Kovacs, E. M., Saunders, M. I., Phinn, S. R., Lyons, M. B., & Maxwell, P. S. (2013). Challenges of Remote Sensing for Quantifying Changes in Complex Seagrass Environments. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 133, 161–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2013.08.027

Serrano, O., Kelleway, J., Lovelock, C. E., & Lowery, P. S. (2019). Conservation of Blue Carbon Ecosystems for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation. In Coastal Wetlands (2nd ed., pp. 965–996). Elsevier https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-63893-9.00028-9.

Sitorus, J. P. T., Dewi, C. S. U., & Rahmawati, S. (2022). Estimasi Cadangan Karbon di Biomassa Lamun Teluk Saleh Pulau Sumbawa, Nusa Tenggara Barat (Undergraduate thesis, [Malang]: Universitas Brawijaya).

Supriyadi, I. H., Iswari, M. Y., Rahmawati, S., Riniatsih, I., Suyarso, S., & Hafizt, M. (2024). Seagrass Ecosystems in Eastern Indonesia: Status, Diversity, and Management Challenges. Ilmu Kelautan: Indonesian Journal of Marine Sciences, 29(4), 503–518. https://doi.org/10.14710/ik.ijms.29.4.503-518.

Traganos, D., Aggarwal, B., Poursanidis, D., Topouzelis, K., Chrysoulakis, N., & Reinartz, P. (2018). Towards Global-Scale Seagrass Mapping and Monitoring Using Sentinel-2 on Google Earth Engine: The Case Study of the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Remote Sensing, 10(8), 1227. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10081227

Veiras-Yanes, J., Martín-García, L., Casas, E., & Arbelo, M. (2023). Mapping Seagrass Meadows and Assessing Blue Carbon Stocks Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery: A Case Study in the Canary Islands, Spain. Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 29(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/ECRS2023-15856

Qiu, G. L., Lin, H. J., Li, Z. S., Fan, H., Zhou, H. L., & Liu, G. H. (2014). Seagrass Ecosystems: Contributions to and Mechanisms of Carbon Sequestration. Journal of Applied Ecology, 25(6), 1825–1832.

Wahyudi, A. J., Rahmawati, S., Irawan, A., Hadiyanto, H., Prayudha, B., Hafizt, M., Afdal, A., Adi, N. S., Rustam, A., Hernawan, U. E., Rahayu, Y. P., Iswari, M. Y., Supriyadi, I. H., Solihudin, T., Ati, R. N. A., Kepel, T. L., Kusumaningtyas, M. A., Daulat, A., Salim, H. L., Sudirman, N., Suryono, D. D., & Kiswara, W. (2020). Assessing Carbon Stock and Sequestration of the Tropical Seagrass Meadows in Indonesia. Ocean Science Journal, 55(1), 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12601-020-0003-0.