Spatial Analysis of Population Projection in Bombana Regency to 2045 Using Arithmetic and Exponential Growth Models

Muhammad Nurul Huda; Nur Kahfi Mukhlisin Anwar; Rafi Sulthan Rizqullah; Shalsabilla Aulia Putri; Nisrina Gina Rahma

doi:10.69606/geography.v4i1.445

Authors

Muhammad Nurul Huda Geography Study Program, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia
Nur Kahfi Mukhlisin Anwar Geography Study Program, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia
Rafi Sulthan Rizqullah Geography Study Program, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia
Shalsabilla Aulia Putri Geography Study Program, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia
Nisrina Gina Rahma Geography Study Program, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Malang, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69606/geography.v4i1.445

Keywords:

population projection, growth population, Bombana Regency

Abstract

Population growth projection in Bombana Regency up to 2045 is important because population increase is not accompanied by an even spatial distribution across sub-districts, which may lead to different levels of regional pressure in the long term. Population projection based on arithmetic and exponential growth models integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is applied to describe variations in the spatial patterns of population growth at the sub-district level and to identify differences in projection results under different growth assumptions. Knowledge of population growth trends and spatial distribution is required to assess the direction of population development in the central to western parts of Bombana Regency, which grow faster than coastal and island areas, as a basis for long-term regional and spatial planning.

References

Amin, S., Amri, N., Rasyid, A. R., Nugraditama, M. F., & Alisha, S. B. (2021). Study of Environmental Carrying Capacity on the Development of Formal Housing in Moncongloe District, Maros Regency. EPI International Journal of Engineering, 4(2), 120–126. https://doi.org/10.25042/10.25042/epi-ije.082021.03

Angel, S. (2023). Urban Expansion: Theory, Evidence and Practice. Buildings and Cities, 4(1), 124–138. https://doi.org/10.5334/bc.348

Auliya, I., Widiatmaka, & Syartinilia. (2025). Land Capability Analysis for Sustainable Land Use Planning: A Case Study of Bogor Regency, Indonesia. Journal of Natural Resources & Environment Management, 15(3), 509–518. https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.15.3.509

Berry, B. J. (1967). Central places in southern Germany. Prentice-Hall.

Booker, K., White, I., Fu, X., & Wilson, M. (2025). Modelling Urban Growth for Long-Term Planning under Future Climate Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Decision Pathway. Cities, 167, 106310. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.106310

Davoudi, S. (2003). European Briefing: Polycentricity in European Spatial Planning: from an Analytical Tool to a Normative Agenda. European Planning Studies, 11(8), 979-999. https://doi.org/10.1080/0965431032000146169

Diani, M. R., Haniifah, D., & Dianty, F. R. (2024). Analisis Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Penduduk dan Volume Sampah DKI Jakarta terhadap Dampak yang Ditimbulkan. Journal of Waste and Sustainable Consumption, 1(1), 27–45. https://doi.org/10.61511/jwsc.v1i1.2024.691

Diogo, V., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Baranzelli, C., & Lavalle, C. (2023). Integrated Spatial Simulation of Population and Urban Land Use: A Pan-European Model Validation. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 16(4), 1463–1492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-023-09518-x

Fujita, M., & Krugman, P. (2004). The New Economic Geography: Past, Present and the Future. Papers in Regional Science, 83(1), 139-164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10110-003-0180-0

Hansen, N. M. (1967). Development Pole Theory in a Regional Context. Kyklos, 20(4), 709-727. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1967.tb00871.x

Herlina, N., Kustiawati, D., Halimi, D. L., & Sari, A. M. (2023). Proyeksi Pertumbuhan Penduduk Kecamatan Cibinong Dengan Metode Matematik. ETNIK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Teknik, 2(2), 145–149.

Iqbal, L. M., & Maulana, A. (2021). Demystifying the Geography of Urbanization in Indonesia (Case Study: Southeast Sulawesi Province). Geographica: Science and Education Journal, 3(2), 76-91. https://doi.org/10.31327/gsej.v3i2.1704

Kang, H., Fu, M., Kang, H., Li, L., Dong, X., & Li, S. (2024). The Impacts of Urban Population Growth and Shrinkage on the Urban Land Use Efficiency: A Case Study of the Northeastern Region of China. Land, 13(9), 1532 https://doi.org/10.3390/land13091532

Karst, K. L. (1969). Regional development policy: A case study of Venezuela. Hispanic American Historical Review, 49(2), 368. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-49.2.368

Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 483-499. https://doi.org/10.1086/261763

Mahtta, R., Fragkias, M., Güneralp, B., Mahendra, A., Reba, M., Wentz, E. A., & Seto, K. C. (2022). Urban Land Expansion: the Role of Population and Economic Growth for 300+ Cities. Npj Urban Sustainability, 2(1), 1-11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00048-y

Malamassam, M. A. (2022). Spatial Structure of Youth Migration in Indonesia: Does Education Matter?. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 15(4), 1045–1074. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-022-09434-6

Malthus, T. R. (1967). Essay on Principle of Population 1798. Readex Microprint.

Martin, R., & Sunley, P. (2006). Path Dependence and Regional Economic Evolution. Journal of Economic Geography, 6(4), 395-437. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbl012

Merton, R. K. (1968). The Matthew Effect in Science: The Reward and Communication Systems of Science are Considered. Science, 159(3810), 56-63. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.159.3810.56

Nurfatimah. (2022). Analysis of the Carrying Capacity of Settlement Land in Tamanggung District. INSOLOGI: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi, 1(5), 505–511. https://doi.org/10.55123/insologi.v1i5.839

Overman, H. G., & Venables, A. J. (2005). Cities in the Developing World (No. 695). London School of Economics and Political Science. Centre for Economic Performance.

Pitoyo, A. J., Sukamdi, S., Alfana, M. A. F., & Widaryoko, N. (2025). Internal Migration in Indonesia: Remapping Trajectories. International Journal of Population Studies, 11(6), 116-129. https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps025190084

Rimal, B., Rijal, S., & Tiwary, A. (2025). Prediction of Urban Growth and Sustainability Challenges Based on LULC Change: Case Study of Two Himalayan Metropolitan Cities. Land, 14(8), 1675. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081675

Romer, P. M. (2009). Two Strategies for Economic Development: Using Ideas and Producing Ideas. In The strategic management of intellectual capital (pp. 211-238). Routledge.

Rustiadi, E., Saefulhakim, S., & Panuju, D. R. (2009). Perencanaan dan Pengembangan Wilayah. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia.

Schiavina, M., Melchiorri, M., Corbane, C., Freire, S., & Batista e Silva, F. (2022). Built-up Areas are Expanding Faster than Population Growth: Regional Patterns and Trajectories in Europe. Journal of Land Use Science, 17(1), 591–608. https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2022.2055184

Sheppard, E. (2017). Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. Regional Studies, 51(6), 972–973. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2017.1278973

Syahfitri, S., Deasy, D., Sugarda, A., & Aprilia, R. (2025). Penggunaan Model Aritmatik dan Geometrik dalam Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk di Kota Medan pada Tahun 2029. AKSIOMA: Jurnal Sains Ekonomi dan Edukasi, 2(1), 180–189. https://doi.org/10.62335/2xnt8c71

Tilahun, G. A., Gebremariam, E., & Desta, H. (2025). Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Changes and Population Dynamics in Awash River Basin (ARB), Ethiopia using GIS and Remote Sensing. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 34017. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-12824-8

United Nations. (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 revision, highlights. United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/highlights/wup2014-highlights.pdf

Verburg, P. H., Crossman, N., Ellis, E. C., Heinimann, A., Hostert, P., Mertz, O., Nagendra, H., Sikor, T., Erb, K.-H., Golubiewski, N., Grau, R., Grove, M., Konaté, S., Meyfroidt, P., Moran, E. F., Parker, D. C., Chowdhury, R. R., Reenberg, A., Rocha, S., Mayaux, P., Cooke, S., Peterseil, J., & Zhen, L. (2015). Land system science and sustainable development of the earth system: A global land project perspective. Anthropocene, 12, 29-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2015.09.004

von Böventer, E. (1975). Regional Growth Theory. Urban Studies, 12(1), 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1080/00420987520080011

Yudhistira, M. H., Brodjonegoro, B. P. S., & Qibthiyyah, R. M. (2024). Unlocking Urban Potential. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 60(2), 129–159. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2389492